What statistics can offer to Decision Makers
Descriptive Statistics
Basic statistics - which of the statistics (e.g. median, average, percentiles etc...) are more relevant to different distributions
Graphs - significance of getting it right (e.g. how the way the graph is created reflects the decision)
Variable types - what variables are easier to deal with
Ceteris paribus, things are always in motion
Third variable problem - how to find the real influencer
Inferential Statistics
Probability value - what is the meaning of P-value
Repeated experiment - how to interpret repeated experiment results
Data collection - you can minimize bias, but not get rid of it
Understanding confidence level
Statistical Thinking
Decision making with limited information
how to check how much information is enough
prioritizing goals based on probability and potential return (benefit/cost ratio ration, decision trees)
How errors add up
Butterfly effect
Black swans
What is Schr?dinger's cat and what is Newton's Apple in business
Cassandra Problem - how to measure a forecast if the course of action has changed
Google Flu trends - how it went wrong
How decisions make forecast outdated
Forecasting - methods and practicality
ARIMA
Why naive forecasts are usually more responsive
How far a forecast should look into the past?
Why more data can mean worse forecast?
Statistical Methods useful for Decision Makers
Describing Bivariate Data
Univariate data and bivariate data
Probability
why things differ each time we measure them?
Normal Distributions and normally distributed errors
Estimation
Independent sources of information and degrees of freedom
Logic of Hypothesis Testing
What can be proven, and why it is always the opposite what we want (Falsification)
Interpreting the results of Hypothesis Testing
Testing Means
Power
How to determine a good (and cheap) sample size
False positive and false negative and why it is always a trade-off
Session 3: Establishing a Vision
‘Mission’ Vs ‘Vision’
Why strategic plans fail and how to avoid failure
Agreeing a Robust Vision
The Need for Clarity and Measurability
Getting Buy-in to the Vision
Case Study/Exercise
Session 4: Becoming Strategic
‘Strategic planning & thinking
Developing techniques to think strategically
Communication
Identifying critical skills needed to succeed
Case study/Exercise
Major Case Study Workshop : Delegates will be asked in small groups to agree a plan to launch a new bank or bank strategy after carrying out analysis of Current Business Environment and Influences. The plan should assess resources Current Business Environment and Influences against the vision.
Session 5: Analysing the Current Business Environment and Influences
External Environments
The General Environment
What are the Key Influences Impacting
Business Product/Service Cycles
Customer Analysis
Case Study/Exercise
Session 6: Analysis of Resources
Analysing the Orga?nisation
The holistic approach
Silo Issues
Cross Organisational Assessment
Assessment:
Financial, Human Resources, Operations, Systems, Style
Case Study/Exercise
Session 7: Motivation & Change Management
Motivational theory
Practical motivation
Money as a motivator
Change agents
Resistance to change
The DREC curve
Approaches to change management
Case Study/Exercise
Session 8: Establishing the Strategy
Turning ‘Vision into Reality’
Creation of Strategic Movement
Developing Strategic Options
Strategy Implications
Identifying the Stakeholders
Cross Organisational Buy-in
Potential conflict areas
Countering Objections
Case Study/Exercise
Session 9: Projects and Measures of Success
New Projects Vs Business as Usual
The need for KPM’s
Measurement approaches
Using the Scorecard Approach
Key business drivers and traceability
Hard & Soft Measures
Establishing a metrics framework
Project Tracking
Risk reporting
Case Study/Exercise
Session 10: The Implementation Process
Resource allocation, strategic planning and control
Planning tools
Objectives
Tasks
Communications
Resource Allocation
Resource characteristics
Building the team
Projects Vs ‘Business as Usual’
Case Study/Exercise
Session 11: Managing the Strategic Change including Conflict Management
The need for conflict – is it healthy
Conflict as a problem
The causes of conflict
Managing, mitigating and/or avoiding conflict
The impact of the change and managing the effects
Selling the benefits of change to the organisation
Minimising the downside
Keeping the plan on track
Case Study/Exercise
Session 12: Assessing Your Team
Preparatory work
Personnel files
Work Records
Other colleagues
Meetings
Discussion groups & Forums
Case Study/Exercise: Two delegates will role play manager/team member at an initial encounter. Group will de-brief in friendly manner and discuss.
Session 13: Dealing With people
Management styles
Behavioural styles
Bank cultural style
Bank and management policy style
Your personal style
Meetings
One to one encounters
Overcoming resistance
Dealing with your own bosses
Selling issues and challenges to your team
Case Study/Exercise: Your boss wants you to re-allocate some responsibilities. ~the staff concerned will not like it – they are nervous of change. How will you handle this?
Session 14: Communication Skills
Different styles
Corporate/Management style
Oral, written, electronic
Encouraging two way communication
Encouraging esprit de corps
Using “Top down” directives
Dealing with resistance
Case Study/Exercise: Your predecessor held weekly team meetings but chose not to chair them, selecting a senior employee instead. Do you agree with this? Would you change it? If so, how?
Session 15: Management styles
Textbook definitions
Your preferred style
Your institutions style, your boss’s Style
What works best for your department
What works best for the team
Case Study/Exercise: Do you think the collegiate style of management favoured by most management gurus is the best?
Session 16: The Role of a Manager
The move from Team member to Supervisor
The role in ensuring my Team achieves Team goals
Ensuring the Team continuously improves
Managing the whole role – time management & effective goal setting
Leadership ‘Presence’ – looking like the Leader
The Influence of Supervisor Behaviour – on the Team, on each Team Member
The focus of the effective Supervisor
Case Study: You have been promoted ahead of a colleague and friend who is obviously disappointed. How should you handle this?
Session 17: Managing Problems
Dealing informally, semi formally and formally
Methods of problem solving
Enlisting help and guidance
Resolution
Referral
Case Study/Exercise: Your staff are not performing because there is too much work. Your boss disagrees and tells you to manage. How do you handle this seemingly impossible brief?
Session 18: Motivation
Basic motivating factors
Creating the right environment
Carrot/stick approach
Nurturing
Patronage
Case Study/Exercise: How would you persuade your team to work on a weekend without extra reward?
Session 19: Delegation
The art of delegation
When to delegate
Supervising
Avoiding overkill
Monitoring
What is trade finance
Case Study: You have asked your deputy to prepare the preliminary budget for your department. How do you monitor the process without treading on toes? At what point would you take over and how would you handle this?
Session 20: Conflict & Resolution
Main causes
Resolution methods
Involving management
Dealing with challenges to your authority
Formal procedures
Case Study: You ask a junior to carry out a task. They say they are too busy, but you insist. They say no again, publicly. How should you handle this direct challenge to your authority?
Session 21: Staff appraisals
Importance
Objective
Remuneration considerations
Appraisal
Encouragement and guidance
Dealing with weaknesses
Case Study: You have been asked to select one person for promotion from two candidates and to tell both the outcome. How do you handle the unsuccessful individual?.
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